Boyd Center Population Projections
The Boyd Center produces single-year projections of the Tennessee resident population by age, sex, and race/ethnicity for Tennessee counties and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (Tennessee portion only). The 2015 projections for 2011 to 2064 are based on the 2010 Census and were calculated using assumptions about future births, deaths, and net migration.
The Boyd Center projections are available in Excel (xlsx) format. The Detailed Data file includes all characteristics. Area Totals files are formatted for print.
The Boyd Center serves as the lead agency of the U.S. Census Bureau's State Data Center program for Tennessee and is a member of the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates.
For other data about the people and places of Tennessee, please visit the Boyd Center Tennessee State Data Center web.
Highlights from the county-level projections:
- Middle Tennessee is expected to lead the state in population growth. Five of the 10 counties with the highest projected growth rates through 2040—Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Robertson, and Sumner—are in the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin Metropolitan Statistical Area.
- Among counties with populations greater than 25,000, Fayette, Montgomery, Sevier, Loudon, and Cumberland Counties are also in the top ten for projected growth rates.
- Approximately 69 percent of the population growth in Tennessee from 2010 to 2040 is expected to occur in Rutherford, Davidson, Williamson, Knox, Shelby, Montgomery, Wilson, Hamilton, Sumner, and Sevier Counties.
- By 2040, the Hispanic/Latino population will more than double to 11.2 percent, compared to 4.5 percent in 2010.
- The proportion of the population characterized as “non-white, non-black, non-Hispanic” is expected to increase to 7.9 percent by 2040, compared to 3.2 percent in 2010.
- Tennessee’s population is expected to be 17.2 percent black non-Hispanic by 2040, compared to 16.3 percent in 2010.
- The proportion of senior citizens and elderly is expected to increase in Tennessee, due to both the aging of the baby boomer generation and increased life expectancy. As of the 2010 census, there were 99,917 individuals aged 85 and older in Tennessee. That number is expected to triple to more than 330,000 by 2040.
Detailed Data File
Area Totals' Files
Compound Annual Population Growth: 2010 to 2040